Given recent events, we thought it would be helpful to provide a brief update regarding current economic and market conditions and offer insight regarding rising risks and opportunities given the outlook for the rest of the year.
The US debt ceiling crisis is now be behind us with Biden’s signature on the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
The US fixed income markets have responded positively, 10-year Treasury Bond yield rallied over 20 basis points this past week.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act reduces nondefense discretionary spending by over $50 billion over the next year, which will have a negative impact on GDP growth of -0.3% adding yet another barrier to GDP growth going forward, according to Barclays research.
We expect financial markets to return their focus to fundamentals over time. We anticipate risk assets to better reflect slowing growth and rising unemployment, illustrated in the most recent household survey showing an increase in May unemployment to 3.7% from 3.5% in April.
The St Louis Fed Nowcast GDP estimate indicates an expected contraction GDP of -0.34% for Q2 2023.
Risks
Reinvestment rate risk is the largest risk facing individual investors, in our view. The temporary nature of high short-term yields are tempting investors to hold too much cash, risking the ability to lock-in higher interest rates for the long-term, before interest rates fall further.
Short-term municipal bonds continue to underperform consistent with our expectations as yields have risen meaningfully, +0.45% to 0.50%, in 2 years, illustrating the risk to investors overweight short-intermediate high quality municipal bonds.
Public equity market valuations have gravitated upwards even as corporate earnings continue to fall.
Chapter 11 bankruptcies are rising in 2023, which is shaping up to be the biggest increase in filings in more than a decade, according to the New York Times.
The credit outlook for the state of California has been downgraded to Negative by Moodys.
High-net-worth investors in California can buy bonds that are not exempt from state tax, yet still pick up yield, after-tax, given extremely low yields of bonds exempt from CA state taxes.
Investors should carefully consider issuer credit quality, even for large established issuers, like the State of CA, as the economy continues to slow.
Active, ongoing, portfolio oversight and credit research should provide confidence to investors seeking to navigate the next leg of the business cycle.
Opportunity
Fixed income has historically performed well in decelerating growth, inflation, and declining corporate earnings environments.
The absolute level of longer-term municipal bond yields are largely unchanged from the start of the year. This presents an opportunity for investors, who share our view that rates are likely headed lower over the remainder of the year, as they can now lock-in equity-like returns from the tax-free cash flow offered by longer-intermediate and long-term bonds.
Stable A and BBB rated municipal issuers offer substantial value in our view on a risk-adjusted basis. This is traditionally an area where most investors are substantially underweighted.
Investors, able to extend duration, earn the added benefit of higher total returns over time should interest rates continue to fall.
If we can offer any further perspective regarding the insights shared above, please let us know.
Best Regards,
Andrew
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Clinton Investment Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Please consult with an investment professional before making any investment using content or implied content from any investment manager. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
Not nearly enough attention has been paid to broader economic history, especially as it relates to the events that occurred in the years following the Volcker, Fed hiking cycle, including the seven hiking cycles that came later.
If we had a nickel for every time an investor shared with us their deep and justified regret for not having purchased longer-term bonds during the 80’s, we would all be very rich.
Investors should be comforted by the knowledge that 10-year Treasury bond yields have already fallen by almost 1.00%, or 100 basis points, since they peaked in October of 2022.
State and local governments have the largest general fund and rainy-day fund balances they have ever had in history.
We recommend investors extend out of short-term cash and short tax-free bonds, given the likelihood of further underperformance.
We encourage investors not to be distracted by what appear to be high, but are likely fleeting, short-term cash yields.
Take advantage of this window of opportunity to lock in higher yields, through longer duration bonds.
Andrew Clinton CEO
Has a Golden Age of Fixed Income Finally Arrived
In volatile environments such as these, we often turn to the sage advice of those who came before us. Their wise and measured guidance has endured over time, distilling experiences of the past, while providing lessons and guidance for the future. We are reminded of the importance of critical thinking in times of market uncertainty and remaining focused during upheaval caused by challenging economic convulsions. The famous quote by Mark Twain, who said, “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme”, comes to mind, yet another more salient quote from Warren Buffet is even more prescient.
“What we learn from history is people don’t learn from history.”
-Warren Buffett
Wall Street pundits have drawn numerous corollaries between the inflationary period of the 1980’s and today, yet, in our view, not nearly enough attention has been paid to broader economic history, especially as it relates to the events that occurred in the years following the Volcker, Fed hiking cycle, including the periods that followed the seven hiking cycles that came later. Therefore, it is essential to explore and understand what came “after”, in the hopes of avoiding the mistakes of the past, while taking advantage of the opportunities the current market environment presents.
The 1980’s
Students of the market may recall that the Federal Funds Rate reached a peak of 17% in March of 1980. The bear market in stocks began eight months later, in November of 1980, as the S&P proceeded to lose 27% over the 20-month period that followed. At that time, investors had the option to invest in cash and savings vehicles yielding +16%, or they could have invested in Ten Year Treasury bonds yielding just over 12%. We know from history that many investors chose to remain invested in cash and short-term instruments, rather than investing in longer-term bonds. With the benefit of hindsight, we also now know that many, if not all, investors who chose that path, regretted their decisions, as the value of the fixed cash flow of longer-term bonds lasted decades longer than the fleeting, higher yields of their cash positions. The rest, as they say, is history. Interest rates proceeded to fall dramatically over the next four decades, ushering in the age of secular stagflation and deflation, delivering very strong total returns to agile investors who correctly extended the durations of their fixed income portfolios and held on as rates cascaded downward.
If We Had a Nickel
If we had a nickel for every time an investor shared with us their deep and justified regret for not having purchased longer-term bonds during the 80’s, we would all be very rich. Even today, investors speak fondly of the “good ol’ days”, when one could achieve an attractive return investing in bonds. To this point, we are happy to share some very good news. The “good ol’ days of fixed income have returned. High-net-worth investors can now achieve equity-like returns, from the tax-free, cash flow that municipal bonds offer, and yet, municipal bonds carry much lower risk than equities. Longer intermediate and long-term municipal bonds are offering taxable-equivalent yields/returns over 7% and in some cases 8%, for those in the highest tax bracket. If rates continue to decline, the total return investors can achieve would be higher still. Given the probability that rates could fall considerably over the next 12-24 months, the upside potential for municipal bonds is the highest it has been since the Great Financial Crisis, in our view.
Worries About Higher Interest Rates
We continue to hear investors expressing concerns about the potential that interest rates could rise further from here. These concerns are understandable given that fixed income investors endured one of the worst bond market performances in over 40 years, during 2022. Having said that, investors should be comforted by the knowledge that 10-year Treasury bond yields have already fallen by almost 1.00%, or 100 basis points, since they peaked in October of 2022. This decline in rates was in response to the downward trend in inflation, which peaked in the summer of 2022, driven by the decline in prices of commodities, goods, and now even some areas of the service economy. Should declines in inflation continue unabated, interest rates are more likely to fall materially, going forward, rather than rise. When one considers the possibility and likelihood that a US recession takes hold in the coming months, we believe the worst fears of bond investors will continue to fade over time. It is also worth noting that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates for the last time in May, then pause further rate hikes. We know from history that, when the Fed pauses, they begin cutting interest rates roughly five months later, on average. While this time may be different in some respects, the data we are seeing, from the significant price declines of the commodities complex, weakening consumer spending, accelerating credit card balances, to rising delinquency rates, indicate to us that a material slowdown in US economic activity is occurring. It is also worth noting that we have now seen 12 consecutive months of declining Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)’s, see Figure 1. In every other instance, when this has occurred, a recession has also occurred, 100% of the time.
Muni Credit Outlook Remains Positive
The credit outlook for municipal bonds remains extremely constructive. Broadly speaking, state and local governments have the largest general fund and rainy-day fund balances they have ever had in history. We expect municipal credit quality to remain stable, even as the economy dips into, what may be, a prolonged economic recession. Considerable value could be lost if investors wait for certainty that the recession is upon us. Markets are anticipatory. By the time we know, with certainty, that the recession is here, interest rates will likely have already moved dramatically lower. When we also consider the possibility that the regional banking crisis we are currently experiencing may not be the last financial accident to occur, interest rates could fall much further than many are anticipating. The regional banking crisis is not an idiosyncratic event, in our view, however, we also do not believe it is an existential crisis for capitalism, as was the case during the Great Financial Crisis. We simply believe that this economy is unhealthy and the safety of high-quality bonds will reflect that reality quite soon. The Treasury curve inversion clearly indicates that over the next 12 to 24 months interest rates are likely to fall dramatically.
Short-Term Municipal Bonds are at Risk of Further Underperformance
Municipal bond investors must be careful as the municipal bond curve remains inverted inside of 10-year maturities, making short-term maturities particularly unattractive, in our view. We firmly believe the positively sloped nature of the municipal yield curve, between 2-year bonds and 30-year bonds, make longer duration bonds compelling. We are, therefore, encouraging investors to extend out of short-term cash and short tax-free bonds, given the risk of further underperformance relative to long duration bonds. For example, 15 year and 20-year munis have outperformed 3-year bonds by +3.25% and +5.76% respectively, over the past six months, according to Bloomberg.
“The lesson of history is that you do not get sustained economic recovery as long as the financial systemis in crisis.”
– Ben Bernanke
What Have We Learned from the Past
The time for investors to add to their fixed income allocations has arrived, in our view. The safety and stability of strong underlying fixed income securities, together with consistent, attractive cash flow, should provide comfort to investors as we enter, what is expected to be, a very volatile period for markets over the next 12 -24 months. We encourage those who remain underweight fixed income to consider increasing their exposure to a neutral if not overweight position. In so doing, investors will, hopefully, avoid the mistakes investors made, in the 80’s, by those who stayed too long in cash vehicles and ultimately regretted it. We advise investors not to be distracted by what appear to be high, but are likely fleeting, short-term cash yields. Rather, we encourage investors to take advantage of this window of opportunity to lock in higher yields, through longer duration bonds, capturing attractive tax-free income while it persists. Of note, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)’s recently released research, concluding that the low-rate environment, that persisted prior to the pandemic, is likely to return over the next five years. This should provide further confidence to investors as the outlook for fixed income has not been this strong for a very long time.
Clinton Investment Management (CIM) News
We are pleased to announce that the CIM team continues to expand. Shivani Singh joined CIM in Q1 23 as Director of Credit Research. Shivani was Team Leader at S&P Global ratings where she spent 13 years covering not-for-profit higher education, charter schools, community colleges, and private K-12 schools. We are confident Shivani’s deep credit research experience and industry knowledge will further strengthen our team as well as the performance we deliver to our clients over time.
Please do not hesitate to contact us if you should have any questions regarding the content in this commentary or the municipal bond market more broadly.
Best regards,
Andrew Clinton CEO
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product,madereference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Clinton Investment Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. The PSN universes were created using the information collected through the PSN investment manager questionnaire and use only gross-of-fee returns. The PSN/Informa content is intended for use by qualified investment professionals.Please consult with an investment professional before making any investment using content or implied content from any investment manager. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for reviewupon request.
We wanted to share our market insights and outlook in light of the extraordinary events of the past few days. The failure and closure of the three US banks, including Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the second largest bank failure in US history, has weighed heavily on the minds and emotions of investors. This is evident in the flight to quality and market reaction we are witnessing. The FDIC, together with the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, acted quickly to ringfence the potential contagion of these bank failures by ensuring that, despite bank closures, depositors will have access to 100% of their deposits held at the failed banks. They also indicated that depositors at any future banks that may fail, would also be protected. In addition, the Fed established a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) which will provide financing to banks, at 100% of face value of US Government, Held To Maturity (HTM) assets, even if they have decreased in value due to the recent rise in interest rates. The BTFP was established to stave off future bank failures. Banks will now have access to liquidity should they need it, which should provide further confidence to depositors.
While these are very positive steps and should limit the systemic risk of further contagion and diminish the probability of a dramatic increase in bank failures, these actions do not diminish the reality that materially tighter lending standards and credit conditions will likely occur as a result. This will negatively impact bank and corporate earnings potential for an extended period in our view. We, at Clinton Investment Management (CIM), have been advising investors, for a number of months, that an increasing risk of an impending economic slowdown exists due to the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in roughly 40 years. We have been encouraging investors to prepare for meaningfully slower growth that will likely result in significantly lower inflation over time as a result. We also believe the Fed hiking cycle is almost complete and that peak interest rates have likely been seen. Recent events reinforce this view and provide further support to the notion that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates as economic growth contracts in the not-too-distant future. In preparation for this expected reality, we are encouraging investors to act deliberately and expeditiously to take advantage of the relatively high level of tax-free yields that are currently available in longer duration municipal bonds, as we do not believe the current level of interest rates will persist for very long. We believe the high quality and stability of the underlying credits will provide safety as market uncertainty persists.
We would invite anyone with questions or concerns to reach out to us as we go forward. We are happy to provide any insight we can.
Best Regards,
Andrew Clinton
CEO
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Clinton Investment Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Please consult with an investment professional before making any investment using content or implied content from any investment manager. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.
For the year, municipal bonds returned -8.5% while Treasury bonds returned -12.5%, corporate bonds returned -15.8%, the S&P 500 returned -19.5%, and the NASDAQ returned -33.2%
As stated in our CIM Q4 21 Market Commentary and Outlook, we shared the expectation that we were likely to see a material slowdown in US economic growth in 2022
We can now see that inflation peaked in June of 2022, very close to the timing we anticipated.
Forced liquidations caused the municipal bond market to dislocate from the Treasury market while the Treasury curve inverted, the muni curve remained steeply sloped.
The Fed’s commitment to the notion of deliberately pushing the US economy into recession was also unexpected in 2022 as it was inconsistent with decades of prior central bank policy.
The broader investment community is now beginning to coalesce around the outlook for recession in 2023.
2023 should be the year of the bond investor in our view.
It is important to note that there is still time for investors to take advantage of the current municipal bond market, yield curve dislocation
Andrew Clinton CEO
It may be stating the obvious to suggest that most investors were grateful to say goodbye to 2022, as we experienced one of the worst years of financial market performance in history. A meaningful slowdown in US economic growth, together with the Fed’s aggressive tightening of financial conditions, via multiple Fed Fund rate hikes, took many by surprise in 2022. This resulted in a surge in uncertainty surrounding the future direction of interest rates, corporate earnings, US payrolls, and housing prices, in particular. A corresponding decline in almost all financial asset values ensued. While 2022 was a challenging year, by almost any measure, municipal bonds continued to demonstrate why they are perceived as one of the safest asset classes one can invest in. For the year, municipal bonds returned -8.5% while Treasury bonds returned -12.5%, corporate bonds returned -15.8%, the S&P 500 returned -19.5%, and the NASDAQ returned -33.2%, according to Bloomberg. We are sensitive to the notion that the smaller negative absolute returns of munis may be little consolation for investors, even if munis did outperform almost every other asset class, as this was the worst muni bond market performance in over 40 years. We are, however, reminded that losing less, when other assets classes lose more, is an essential ingredient when preserving and building wealth over time. We also are reminded that a challenging year, like 2022, provides an opportunity to assess not only what went wrong, but also what went right. High on the list of what Clinton Investment Management (CIM) got right, as stated in our CIM Q4 21 Market Commentary and Outlook, was the expectation we shared that we were likely to see a material slowdown in US economic growth in 2022, as well as an aggressive path of Fed tightening. Throughout 2022, we also expressed concerns relating to risk asset valuations, in response to the corresponding tightening of financial conditions, which we expected to weaken the US consumer.
Forced liquidations caused the municipal bond market to dislocate from the Treasury market as the Treasury curve inverted, the muni curve remained steeply sloped.
The explosion in revolving credit card debt, in the last year, illustrates this point clearly, see Figure 1. If the consumer was as “resilient” as many of the financial pundits would have us believe, we would not see consumers being forced to use high interest credit cards to support their ongoing spending. We also firmly believed that tighter monetary policy would translate to weaker corporate profitability, resulting in falling risk asset valuations, both of which came to pass. We did not, however, anticipate the onset of war in Ukraine or the corresponding
upward pressure the war exerted, albeit temporarily, on commodity prices. Higher commodity prices, oil in particular, caused headline inflation to persist for a couple of months longer than we anticipated. We can now see that inflation peaked in June of 2022, very close to the timing we anticipated. Inflation has been falling ever since, see Figure 2.
It is also worth noting that Manufacturing and Non- Manufacturing, Purchasing Managers indices (PMI) are now contracting, indicating that the direction of US economic activity continues to be downward and may also indicate that the US economy is already in recession.
While the yields on short-term Treasury bonds rose much more than long-term Treasury bond yields, the indiscriminate selling of retail municipal bond funds, by shareholders, resulted in the highest year of mutual fund outflows in the history of the municipal bond market. Over $115 billion flowed out of open-end municipal bond funds in 2022. Ongoing outflows added to the selling pressure, forcing yields on the long-end of the muni market higher, due to insufficient demand to absorb the supply. These forced liquidations caused the municipal bond market to dislocate from the Treasury market. As the Treasury curve inverted, the muni curve remained steeply sloped. Our recommendation to investors, in response to this dislocation, was to act expeditiously, looking to underweight highly rated municipal bonds, due in 1-5 years. We believe substantial risk of underperformance persists in these maturities, given the extremely positive slope of the municipal bond curve as well as very low absolute and relative yields of short-term muni bonds. In recent weeks we have begun to see the muni curve normalize as short maturities have underperformed longer duration bonds by over +5.00% or 500 basis points, just since Nov 1. The muni curve is now inverted between 1 and 12 years, a rare phenomenon.
The Fed’s apparent commitment to deliberately pushing the US economy into recession was also unexpected in 2022, as this posture is inconsistent with decades of prior central bank policy. Economic recessions are outcomes that the Federal Reserve has sought to avoid in the past. This time, the fastest Fed hiking cycle in history clearly illustrates to us that the Fed perceives a recession as a tool to constrain inflation. Recession will likely exert downward pressure on wage inflation, resulting in moderating inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. The Fed has stated its full commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target and we believe them. We also believe the Fed has already hiked interest rates too far, tightening monetary conditions too much, which will likely result in a meaningful recession in 2023. While the economy has begun to slow, the Fed has assured us that it is going to rase interest rates higher still. It’s worth noting that almost the entirety of the previous interest hikes, that took place in 2022, have yet to be felt by the US economy. Historically, it takes roughly four to six quarters for rate hikes to begin to impact the economy. When one considers that the Fed only just began hiking rates three quarters ago, the full force of these rate hikes is indeed, yet to come, in our view.
The broader investment community is, just now, beginning to coalesce around our outlook. Therefore, looking out over the next 12 months, we expect the environment for fixed income to be quite good. For example, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley’s research departments have both indicated that they believe the performance of municipal bonds could be anywhere between +8% to over +11% respectively in 2023. Our view is that those estimates are likely to be conservative. Municipal bond investors may be surprised by the level of positive absolute returns they achieve in their municipal bond holdings this year. Investors are well compensated for low credit risk in munis and limited likelihood that rates will rise further. In addition, the Fed has indicated that it is approaching the end of its tightening cycle. When we considers that municipal bond investors can achieve tax-free yields over 4.00%, equating to an equity-like return of roughly 7% on a taxable basis through income alone, for those in the highest tax bracket, the case for munis becomes even more compelling. Any further decline in interest rates from here will add meaningfully to an investor’s principal return as well. We are positioning our client portfolios accordingly given this opportunity as we believe 2023 should be the year of the bond investor.
It is important to note that there is still time for investors to take advantage of the current municipal bond market, yield curve dislocation. Active tax loss harvesting of existing mutual fund and individual bond positions not only can deliver meaningful tax alpha, but it provides an opportunity to better positions one’s bond portfolio, in a highly tax efficient manner, to take advantage of the changes in the economic outlook and the bond market more broadly. CIM was extremely active, throughout 2022, harvesting losses, delivering significant tax alpha to our clients. In addition, the importance of active and ongoing credit oversight cannot be overstated, as we continue to invest in stable to improving underlying credits, even as the economic slowdown gathers momentum.
When a hurricane is approaching, individuals are encouraged to prepare, securing their assets and taking cover. Continuing with that metaphor, municipal bonds are much like the financial plywood that helps investors protect their financial lives, in the midst of an economic storm, protecting investors from significant loss as they await the return of clearer skies.
We have begun to move up in credit quality and we are extending duration to increase yield for our client portfolios, given the expectation that further slowing in economic growth, ending in recession, will cause yields to fall further. We are grateful that our clients remained steadfast throughout 2022. It can often be difficult to stay the course, staying true to one’s convictions, when the world seems to be taking an opposite perspective. We are also grateful that many of the expectations we shared with clients have come to pass.
Now is the time to take advantage of the knowledge that a recession will be arriving soon, if it has not already. We know high quality fixed income and municipal bonds perform quite well during periods of slow to contracting economic growth. An appropriate simile is that a recession is like an economic hurricane. When a hurricane is approaching, individuals are encouraged to prepare, securing their assets, and taking cover. Continuing with that metaphor, municipal bonds are much like financial plywood that helps investors protect their financial lives, in the midst of an economic storm, protecting investors from significant loss, as they await the return of clearer skies.
Clinton Investment Management News
We want to sincerely thank the advisors and clients we serve for their ongoing trust and confidence. While 2022 was a very challenging year for us all, CIM enjoyed continued to growth. Our firm’s addition to multiple SMA platforms throughout the country is evidence of the highly valued and differentiated nature of our municipal bond investment solutions. These achievements resulted in the largest inflow of new client mandates in our firm’s history during 2022. The strength of our relationships is evident in our growth, and we are deeply grateful for our client’s ongoing commitment, trust, and loyalty.
If you should have any questions regarding this commentary or how one can take advantage of the inefficiencies we see, feel free to reach out to us directly.
Best Regards,
Andrew Clinton
CEO
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product,madereference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Clinton Investment Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. The PSN universes were created using the information collected through the PSN investment manager questionnaire and use only gross-of-fee returns. The PSN/Informa content is intended for use by qualified investment professionals.Please consult with an investment professional before making any investment using content or implied content from any investment manager. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for reviewupon request.
In the most recent KPMG study, over 80% of CEO’s surveyed expect a recession in the next twelve months
Investors can now achieve tax-free yields of 5% or more, which equates to 8.5% to 9.00% on taxable equivalent basis, for those in the highest federal tax bracket.
The Bloomberg Recession Probability Model now stands at 100%.
The front-end of the muni curve is quite rich in our view. The curve is almost perfectly flat 2 years to 5 years. Nominal yields are roughly the same regardless of maturity.
Oil, iron ore, copper, wheat, silver, nickel, and palladium were down -27%, -20%, -29%, -29%, -29%, -53% and -27% respectively from their peaks.
30 year bond yields were roughly 0.50% lower than 2 year bond yields.
Following every recession since the early 80’s, the Fed has reversed the entirety of all its prior interest rate hikes.
We have seen six consecutive months of weakening Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), from the Conference Board.
Andrew Clinton CEO
The environment that investors have faced throughout 2022 has grown more challenging by the day. Market uncertainty has risen dramatically as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the threat of an expanding war, the increasing likelihood of severe economic contraction in the US, Europe, and Asia, while the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy at the fastest cadence in history. These risks, both real and perceived, have resulted in the destruction of tens of trillions of dollars in wealth, year-to-date. This experience has understandably taken a serious and significant toll on US consumer sentiment, which is now at the lowest level in over 50 years. Expectations for contraction in domestic and multinational corporate profitability have also increased meaningfully and are now adding to the market volatility that persists. Market and economic conditions portend a period of deep domestic and global economic contraction, which we expect to accelerate in the coming months, an outlook supported by the over 1,000 CEO’s who participated in the most recent KPMG study. In the study, over 80% of CEO’s surveyed expect a recession in the next twelve months, while roughly half the CEO’s anticipate cutting jobs within their organizations during that time. These deep and disruptive, market crosscurrents had a substantial impact on bond markets and municipal bonds specifically during the third quarter.
The rise in interest rates, year-to-date, has resulted in the most severe downward, bond price adjustments in 50 years. At moments like these we are reminded that Fed rate hikes act with a “long and variable lag”. Historically, it takes roughly four to six quarters for rate hikes to fully impact broader economic activity, implying that almost the entirety of Fed rate hikes, which began in March if this year, have yet to be felt in any meaningful way in the US economy. Yet, the pace and ferocity with which the Fed has raised interest rates continues at the fastest rate in US history. The Fed is also actively reducing its balance sheet through Quantitative Tightening (QT). When one considers the totality of the tightening that has occurred, together with the generational strengthening of the US dollar, the total impact of Fed action on financial conditions in 2022 equates to roughly 600 basis points of tightening, according to economist David Rosenberg. Fed Chair Powell has stated clearly that the Fed’s actions will result in “pain” for US consumers. We interpret this to mean that the Fed, in the clearest terms possible, is informing the public that it doesn’t believe tightening “too much” is a policy mistake, rather, it is a deliberate act, as they seek to push the US economy into a deep recession in order to reverse the stagflationary forces that persist. Therefore, the odds of a recession, over the next twelve months, are extremely high, illustrated clearly by the Bloomberg Recession Probability Model, which now stands at 100%. The Fed also appears committed to hike yet another 0.75%, or 75 basis point, in November, and perhaps as much as another 0.75% in December. As such, the outlook for US economic growth looks decidedly bleak. Fed Fund futures are forecasting a terminal rate of roughly 5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield stands at roughly 4.19%. The Fed’s terminal rate is already priced into Treasury bonds, absent another adjustment upward by the Fed. The impact of the rate increases can also be seen in the level of 30-year fixed mortgage rates, now approaching 7%, which is causing a significant proportion of the US residential real estate market to become largely unaffordable for many home buyers. What is remarkable is the fact that Fed hikes continue in the face of a material decline in commodities prices, as almost the entirety of the commodities complex is now in a bear market, down more than 20% from its highs. At the time of this writing oil, iron ore, copper, wheat, silver, nickel, and palladium were down -27%, -20%, -29%, -29%, -29%, -53% and -27% respectively from their peaks. This is a clear indication that the inflationary forces the Fed is uniquely focused on arresting, are already beginning to dissipate. Yet, the Fed is tightening financial conditions further. As our clients and followers know, Clinton Investment Management has been anticipating a slowdown in economic activity, together with a peak in inflation during the second or third quarter 2022 for some time. While CPI remains stubbornly high, we have seen six consecutive months of weakening Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), from the Conference Board. Never before have we seen six consecutive months of weakening LEI’s without the US economy subsequently experiencing a recession, see Figure 1.
Investors can now achieve tax-free yields of 5% or more, which equates to 8.5% to 9.00% on taxable equivalent basis, for those in the highest federal tax bracket. At these levels, investors can lock in annualized returns in high quality muni and enjoy equity like returns, for the next 20 years for example, without the fear of the -40.00% to -50.00% drawdown that has been in experienced in the equity markets every 10 years or so.
We should begin to see further confirmation of a deterioration in economic activity in the coming months. We are following guidance from corporations in their upcoming earnings announcements for clues as to the exact timing, depth, and duration of the coming slowdown.
In sympathy with Treasury yields, municipal bond yields moved higher during Q3 making September one of the worst months, from a total return perspective, in municipal bond market history. The muni market was down over -3.84% in September according to the Bloomberg Muni Index. While it may come as small consolation to municipal bond investors, it is important to note that munis continue to be one of the best performing asset classes, from a total return perspective, year-to-date. The Bloomberg Muni Index was down approximately -12% year-to-date at the end of the third quarter while Treasuries, Corporate bonds, and the S&P 500 were down -15%, -14%, and -24% respectively, as of 9/30/22. At moments like these we believe it’s important to revisit prior periods of rising rates to better understand the frequency, depth, and duration of municipal drawdowns in order to derive greater clarity and confidence as we look forward. As you can see in Figure 2, periods of rising muni yields are not only frequent but are often quite brief. The longest drawdown period, going back to 1982, was 11 months. The current drawdown cycle is approaching 10 months.
While the worst bond market in history has been unpleasant and unwelcome, which is perhaps the understatement of this millennium, we know from experience that periods of market upheaval and dislocation create extraordinary opportunities. Investors with appropriate investment horizons can enjoy the benefits of those dislocations as markets normalize over time. An example of the severity of current market dislocations can be seen in comparing the shape of the Treasury yield curve to that of the AAA rated, tax-free muni curve. The Treasury curve is inverted by approximately -0.50%, or -50 basis points, from 2 years to 30 years bonds (2s/30s), meaning 30 year bond yields were roughly 0.50% lower than 2 year bond yields. Yet, 30 year muni bond yields are approximately +0.91% or 91 basis points, higher than 2 year muni bonds. We believe the Treasury curve is accurately reflecting the likelihood that long-term interest rates will be materially lower in the future, creating an attractive opportunity and entry point in longer intermediate and long-duration muni bonds, as the muni market has yet to price in the Treasury market reality. The front-end of the muni curve is quite rich in our view. The curve is almost perfectly flat 2 years to 5 years. Nominal yields are roughly the same regardless of maturity. Yet, muni to Treasury ratios are quite rich in short maturities from a historical perspective, making short-duration munis unattractive and likely to underperform over time in our view. This dislocation is being driven by record setting withdrawals of over $100 billion out of open-end municipal bond mutual funds, year-to-date, see Figure 3.
Investors can lock in annualized returns in high quality muni and enjoy equity like returns, for the next 20 years for example, without the fear of the -40.00% to -50.00% drawdown that has been in experienced in the equity markets every 10 years or so.
Outflows have continued to pressure longer duration muni yields higher to levels we have not seen since the Great Financial Crisis, over 14 years ago. Investors can now achieve tax-free yields of 5% or more, which equates to 8.5% to 9.00% on taxable equivalent basis, for those in the highest federal tax bracket. At these levels, investors can lock in annualized returns in high quality muni and enjoy equity-like returns, for the next 20 years for example, without the fear of the -40.00% to -50.00% drawdown that has been in experienced in the equity markets every 10 years or so.
Municipal credit quality remains stable as state and local governments continue to benefit from higher pass-through corporate tax collections and higher inflationary tax revenue, derived from higher nominal sales tax collections. New issuance in the municipal bond market is down over 10% from this time last, year given that many state and local governments have sufficient cash and liquidity such that they don’t need to borrow. They may also be considering the likelihood that interest rates could be considerably lower next year this time, which would be a better time to access the capital markets, enabling them to achieve lower interest costs over time. Heading into, what we expect will be a severe an economic slowdown or recession, state and local governments, are, quite literally, in the strongest fiscal health they have enjoyed in the past 30 years. Therefore, we continue to believe the greatest value can be found in lower investment grade bonds where default risk is consistent with AAA quality, as shown in Moody’s credit default studies going back 50 years, and tax-free yields are the highest, while spreads to AAA rated bonds are the widest.
As we look to year-end, it is reasonable to expect that market uncertainty will persist for some time. However, we also expect 2023 to be a much more constructive year for high quality fixed income more broadly and munis in particular. Following every recession since the early 80’s, the Fed has reversed the entirety of all its prior interest rate hikes. While we understand there are calls by some in the investing community who believe this time is different and that high rates of inflation will persist forever, that outlook is inconsistent with the last 50 years of monetary policy. That is not to say that that outcome is impossible, it is simply to say that it is a very low probability event over the intermediate and longer term, given what we know as students of economic theory and Fed policy. Having said that, we expect 2023 to be a challenging year for the US and Global economies, as well as risk assets more broadly. However, we also expect the Fed’s tightening cycle to come to end as well. As the economy slows further, the Fed will likely be forced to cut rates deeply to reverse the trend in economic contraction. While we have no clarity as to whether the Fed will be forced to return to the zero bound, it is reasonable to believe that materially lower interest rates will be necessary to recover from what we believe is not a policy mistake by the Fed, pushing the US economy into a recession, but a deliberate act. As investors consider the best way forward, it is important to remember that the asset class that enters the recession first also typically exists first. That would mean fixed income should perform well over the next 12 to 18 months. As challenging as this year has been, and continues to be, we encourage our clients and investors to remain calm and confident in the knowledge that this too shall pass, and better days are ahead for fixed income and municipal bond investors.
If you should have any questions about this content or the fixed income and municipal bond markets more broadly, please do not hesitate to reach out to us directly.
Best,
Andrew Clinton
CEO
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